Pitching matchup in decisive game 3 vs Yomiuri

Gen Sueyoshi has a great post, ‘By the Numbers‘, at his site on all of the relevant numbers from this season’s 24 matchups between Tokyo and Yomiuri.

By all accounts, it looks like it will be Akagawa pitching for Tokyo and former Tokyo import Dicky Gonzalez throwing for Yomiuri.

Gonzalez hasn’t pitched much this season, but he has been solid for the Giants recently. He’s a fastball/slider pitcher who mixes in the occasional changeup.

Neither team has seen much of the other’s starter this season with Akagawa only throwing four innings against Yomiuri and Gonzalez getting just a third of an inning more than that against Tokyo.

But by looking at some numbers from last season, we might be able to scrounge a little bit more detail.

One thing that becomes very clear is that Gonzalez hasn’t pitched at Jingu Stadium for at least a few seasons.

Also of interest, there were two Tokyo players that hit pretty well against Gonzalez last season, Iihara (.600) and Aoki (.400).

Think we might see Iihara starting in left tonite? Don’t be too surprised.

In 2009, it was Miyamoto and Tanaka that shared the highest batting average against Gonzalez at .667, and Aoki also did well at .333.

However, even though Tokyo have a far longer history with Gonzalez than Yomiuri does with Akagawa, neither team has spent a lot of time at the plate against the opposing pitcher.

Who has the advantage in this case? I’d say that Tokyo does.

My prediction: Yomiuri 3 – 5 Tokyo

 

About Christopher Pellegrini

Christopher is a budding sabermetrician and long-time supporter of Tokyo’s more lovable team, the Swallows. He has publicly volunteered, several times, that he plans to buy the team at some point in the future. When he finally runs the joint, it is likely that he will fine any player who swings at the first pitch or sac bunts (unless it’s a pitcher, of course). Follow him on Twitter: @chrispellegrini