The Monday Review #15

Welcome to the Monday Review, in which we’ll look back at the week that was and look ahead to the week that will be. We hope a recurring weekly review column will help readers identify some trends that can’t be covered in a single game report. We’re still trying to work out the format, so let us know what you’d like to see in the comments.

6 consecutive days of cheering for the Swallows with rain has left me sick and lethargic. So I will keep the commentary short. Instead I will present some sexy raw data. Luckily, Chris and Dave covered a lot of “Monday Review”-ish stuff in TS podcast #2. So those of you who want injury updates and recent player performances, go listen to the podcast.

The following is Win-Loss-Tie tables for Runs For and Against.

Runs ForRuns Against
RunsWLTRunsWLT
008101301
1213211422
281132933
39413671
411114471
57215321
67146074
72207130
82008030
90009060
1010110021
1100011000
1200012000
1310013000

For example, when we have scored 2 runs we have a 8-11-3 record. As another example, when our opponents have scored 3 runs on us, the team has gone 6-7-1.

Using the date in the table, you can calculate random stats like average margin of victory (2.62) or average margin of loss (-3.5). Those numbers support the idea that we tend to either win close or lose big. A fact underscored by our negative run differential despite having a winning record.

The numbers show that we’ve held opponents to 3 runs or under in 61 games, which is over half our games. But we’ve been held to under 3 runs or under in just as many games (62). On the upper end of the spectrum we’ve managed to score 7 or more runs 9 times this seasons, while our opponents have scored 7 or more runs against us 16 times.

It’s also somewhat troubling that our chances of winning a game begins to tip against us once we allow 3 runs. Also, isn’t it weird that 4 of our ties have been of the 6-6 variety?

I haven’t looked at the numbers to calculate true statistical significance, nor have I done anything to eliminate outliers in my calculations. But at the very least, this table quantifies the nagging feeling we had that our offense was not pulling it’s weight. Readers are invited to explore the numbers (maybe  make some sexy graphs?) and report on other conclusions.

One thing I will remind everyone is that past performance is not a good indicator of future performance, especially with such a small sample size. In other words, don’t think our chances of winning have gone up if a team scores an extra run to make the game 5-3, from 4-3.

About Kozo Ota

Kozo Ota is a third-generation Swallows fan that grew up on Montreal Expos baseball. (You can read more about that here.) When he’s not at Jingu, he works as a freelance translator/interpreter to make enough money to go to Jingu. You can find random posts by Kozo on Google+ and Twitter.

  • It seems Kawamoto is out for the season for his injury, and now the word is, that Tony Barnette who was sent down today, has broken a bone somewhere, and will be out until October…. ouch!!