Miyamoto won the vote for who Tsubamegun want to see playing third.

We posted a poll on the 25th asking you some general questions about the state of affairs with the team. Aoki’s gone, and there are some question marks hanging over the team as spring camp gets under way down in Urasoe, Okinawa.

We here at Tsubamegun tend to see these question marks as opportunities, and the majority of respondents to the poll seemed to agree with us. Not a single voter had the team finishing the 2012 season any lower than fourth place in the Central League.

There were 25 complete responses to the poll, and for your perusal we have laid out the numbers in an easily digestible format.

1. Do you approve of Tokyo’s decision to post Aoki at the end of 2011?

Response	Votes	%
Yes	15	60%
No	6	24%
Undecided	4	16%

2. Who do you want to get the most starts at third base for the Tokyo Swallows this season?

Response	Votes	%
Shinya Miyamoto	13	52%
Tetsuto Yamada	3	12%
Shingo Kawabata	3	12%
Kazuhiro Hatakeyama	2	8%
Ryosuke Morioka	1	4%
Takahiro Araki	0	0%
Other	0	0%
Undecided	3	12%

3. Who do you want to get the most starts at center for the Tokyo Swallows this season?

Response	Votes	%
Tsuyoshi Ueda	14	56%
Yasushi Iihara	3	12%
Kazuki Fukuchi	1	4%
Yuichi Matsumoto	1	4%
Other	1	4%
Undecided	5	20%

4. With the players currently under contract, do you believe that Tokyo can make up for the loss of Aoki’s defense and his 2011 slash line of .292/.358/.360?

Response	Votes	%
Yes	9	36%
No	14	56%
Undecided	2	8%

5. Do you think that the front office made enough moves during the off-season to bolster the starting rotation and bullpen?

Response	Votes	%
Yes	7	28%
No	13	52%
Undecided	5	20%

6. What place to you think the Tokyo Swallows will finish the 2012 regular season in?

Response	Votes	%
Central League Champions	7	28%
2nd place	6	24%
3rd place	6	24%
4th place	6	24%
5th place	0	0%
6th place	0	0%

Interesting responses although not entirely unexpected. Even though it’s an exceedingly small sample size, feel free to offer your interpretations in the comments section below.

Yomiuri Giants 1

Tokyo Swallows  3

Series: Swallows Win 2-1

(Meiji Jingu Stadium)

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	F	H	E
Yomiuri	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	6	2
Tokyo	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	X	3	7	0
W: Akagawa (1-0) L: Gonzalez (0-1) S: Muranaka (1)

Based on the comments received in yesterday’s game report, you don’t need to read this report to find out that the Swallows won game 3 of their series against the hated Giants. The raw details of what happened and the sequence of events that lead to the victory are available elsewhere. If you’ll indulge me, I’d like to offer a game report with my own personal insights watching as a fan from the right field stands of Jingu…

	Yomiuri		Tokyo
1	SS Sakamoto	1	CF Aoki
2	2B Terauchi	2	2B Tanaka
3	CF Chono	3	LF Whitesell
4	C Abe	4	1B Hatakeyama
5	LF Ramirez	5	3B Miyamoto
6	1B Ogasawara	6	RF Balentien
7	RF Tani	7	SS Morioka
8	3B Furuki	8	C Aikawa
9	P Gonzalez	9	P Akagawa

No matter how well I had tried to mentally justify our position prior to the game, I did not come into tonight’s game cofortable with the idea that we could win. Call it pessimism or realism, I did go to the game tonight mentally preparing for the possibility that our season would end. The negatives (injuries, lack of offense throughout the series, losing momentum after game 2, starting a young pitcher in a pressure game, etc.) had piled higher in my mind than the positives (Akagawa has been effective, Dicky Gonzalez is not the second coming, we’ve come back from a lot of bad positions all year, etc.)

The Monday night crowd was less than that of the 2 weekend games, with an announced attendance of 31,687. But with clear skies and the moon in the sky I knew it would be a beautiful night for baseball even if the crowd was a touch smaller. Akagawa allayed my fears that he would buckle under the pressure with consecutive 1-2-3 innings culminating with strikeouts to start the game. On offense, our inability to score runs right away let the doubt monster creep into my head, but the fact that we managed to get the first hit of the game in the first (Whitesell infield single no less) helped keep the paranoia from taking over.

Doubt began to manifest again when the Giants got their first hit from Furuki with 1 out in the top of the third. The Giants gave us a free out by bunting Furuki over to second, and Akagawa got Sakamoto to ground out to third for the final out. When Aikawa started the bottom of the inning with a solo homerun down the left field line, and drew first blood for the Swallows for the first time in the series, I started to believe that we could win. 1-0 Swallows

That belief would get tested in subsequent innings, as Akagawa allowed consecutive 2 out walks (on 8 pitches no less) in the fourth, consecutive 1 out hits to put on the corners (to the pitcher no less) in the fifth, and a lead off single to start the sixth. But each time, Akagawa regrouped and managed to get the Giants to end the inning without any damage. While Akagawa continued to put up zeros on the top of the scoreboard, the Swallows were unfortunately doing the same thing.

When Akagawa’s night came to an end with 2 outs and a man on second in the seventh, another thought of uncertainty crossed my mind as Oshimoto made his way to the mound. Would we see the reliable Oshimoto or the tired and overworked Oshimoto? These toxic thoughts weren’t able to take root as Oshimoto struck out Sakamoto on just 4 pitches to end the threat.

Things got wild in the bottom of the inning. Miyamoto got on base via a 1 out infield single, but it looked like Balentien had ended the inning with a double play when he grounded out to short. Fortunately, Terauchi wasn’t able to turn the play as his throw missed first base by a mile. Balentien, who had ran hard to try to beat the throw, was half way into right field before he turned to take second base. Ueda came in to run for Balentien, and Morioka came up to bat. Morioka fell behind 0-2, but managed to lace a liner into left field while Ueda was running on contact. Ueda ran towards home and dove in head first, narrowly avoiding the tag, to score the insurance run. 2-0 Swallows

Muranaka came into the game and shut down Giants in the eighth on just 7 pitches. While it seemed like the Swallows were getting closer to closing out the series, there was palpable nervousness in the air as the lead was still relatively small. The Swallows offense gave us a chance to forget about failure as a wild series of events further extended our lead. Aoki started things off with a 1 out double down the left field line that most of us in right assumed was a foul ball. Hiroyasu followed with a hard hit to second that Terauchi let get past him for an error. Aoki turned the corner and headed to home but his barrel roll of a slide into home apparently did not avoid Abe’s tag. (It was too far for us to really determine.) Hiroyasu advanced to second on the throw, and Fukuchi was up with 2 outs. Before any thoughts of changing of momentum could take root, Fukuchi took the first pitch he saw and hit it into right. This time the runner was able to score from second without problem. 3-0 Swallows

So it was up to Muranaka to close out the game and prevent us all from having an aneurism. Things started off nicely with a 3 pitch strikeout of Ramirez. At this point I was huddled shoulder-to-shoulder with my fellow Tsubamegun friends. Unfortunately Ogasawara had to add some drama to the proceedings with a solo shot to right field. 3-1 Swallows But unlike Saturday, Muranaka would stay in the game even as Tateyama could be seen warming up in the pen. Despite the home run, the Swallows crowd did not lose any energy. Muranaka battled Tani and got a ground out to third to make it 1 out from the win. The Giants sent Yoshinobu Takahashi to the plate and he got ahead 2-1. Then we channeled nervous energy to start a Muranaka chant that was quickly picked up by our section and then propagated by the ouendan. The sight of half the stadium chanting for Muranaka and drowning out the Giants cheers was moving and can’t be adequately described in words. Muranaka responded by getting a foul ball, and a massive wiff from Takahashi to end the game and the series.

The next few moments were a flurry of high fives and hugs. I’ll be honest, I cried a little. Not as much as Ishii’s retirement, but the feeling of unity with my friends and thousands of strangers tugged at my heart strings. While the Swallows will move onto Nagoya, I will have to remain in Tokyo. Regardless of what happens at Nagoya, those games won’t be able to beat the emotion I felt in the packed crowd tonight. I hope to see the Swallows bring the action back to Jingu for the Japan Series. Even if they can’t bring it back, I will always have tonight’s game to remember… I feel lucky to have been able to share this moment with many great people of various backgrounds, and I thank the Swallows and this site for that opportunity.

Post Game Celebrations. It wasn't the prettiest win, but a memorable night because of it. (Photo taken by Chris Pellegrini)

Hiroshima Carp  1

Tokyo Swallows  2

Streak: Won 1       Last 5: LWWLW

(Meiji Jingu Stadium)

This game very nearly sucked. But in the end, it turned out to be a very satisfactory way to end the regular season.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	F	H	E
Hiroshima	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	0
Tokyo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2x	2	3	0
W: Oshimoto (3-2 1S) L: Maeda (10-12)

The unimportance of this contest was lost on very few people in the stadium with a large portion of the Swallows fans on hand showing up purely because Hirotoshi Ishii was slated to pitch a bit in the final top team appearance of his injury-abbreviated career.

	Hiroshima		Tokyo
1	Higashide 2B	1	Aoki CF
2	Akamatsu CF	2	Ueda LF
3	Maru RF	3	Tanaka 2B
4	Kurihara 1B	4	Hatakeyama 1B
5	Matsuyama LF	5	Miyamoto 3B
6	Barden 3B	6	Balentien RF
7	Kokubo SS	7	Morioka SS
8	Kura C	8	Kawamoto C
9	Maeda P	9	Akagawa P

The only person for whom the game seemed to matter was Hiroshima’s starter, Kenta Maeda. He needed a few more Ks and maybe an inning or two to secure first place in both pitching categories for the 2011 season.

Ishii threw three strikes in his last pro appearance.

And he got ‘em both. Maeda went nearly the full nine and struck out four in a dominating pitching performance that nearly ended his season on a very high note.

Nearly.

Maeda carried a no-hitter through eight and one-third innings before finally running into trouble. He walked three in the process, but Tokyo’s bats never put up much of a fight. And why should they? This game felt very much like a fine-tuning exercise before the playoffs start on Saturday.

The pitching changes were fast and furious on the Tokyo side. Akagawa (6-3; 2.03 ERA) started and pitched two scoreless innings before Tateyama (11-5; 2.04) came in to throw a three up, three down, 12-pitch third. Lim (4-2 32S; 2.17) and Matsuoka (2-2; 2.86) pitched a runnerless inning each before Barnette (1-1 2S; 2.68) made his first appearance in what seemed like a year and a half and surrendered the only run of the game up to that point. 1-0 Hiroshima.

But the Tokyo bats weren’t getting anything done to keep Maeda honest. However, that didn’t really matter to most of the crowd as main course was about to be served. Ishii made his way to the mound to start the top of the seventh. His opponent, Matsumoto, swung politely at three straight pitches to give Ishii the send-off he deserved.

The teary-eyed Ishii was then replaced by Masubuchi (7-11; 4.22) who figures to be coming out of the ‘pen during the first stage of the playoffs. Masubuchi gave up the obligatory walk to repay Hiroshima for their sportsmanship, and then he worked through the next five batters without allowing any other runners to reach base.

I like Masubuchi coming out of the ‘pen. And you should, too.

Oshimoto (3-2 1S; 3.28) pitched the top of the ninth, and he eventually retired the side despite nearly giving up a home run to Matsuyama.

And Oshimoto would eventually get the win as the Swallows finally got to Maeda with one out in the bottom of the ninth. After drawing a walk in his first at-bat, Whitesell was caught looking at a called 3-2 strike. But then Tokyo’s horde of second and third string players came through to disrupt Maeda’s no-hitter and give the substantial home crowd something other than Ishii to cheer about.

Fujimoto (read this to find out why he was promoted) broke up the no-hit bid with a double down the line in left, and then Ueda outran a slow hopper to short to put runners on the corners with one out.

Ueda safely stole second during Tanaka’s at-bat, and then the latter worked a walk to juice the bases with Maeda still on the mound. There was action in the bullpen, but Nomura never made a move.

Hatakeyama then grounded stoftly to second, and he was somehow able to beat the throw at first to avoid the

Hirotoshi's three children greeted him after the game. Instant heart-melter.

double play while Fujimoto scored from third on the fielder’s choice. All tied at one.

With runners on the corners and Fukuchi pinch-hitting for Noguchi (who was covering third for Miyamoto), Fukuchi swatted a low 2-1 changeup into left to score the winning run and surprise the hell out of everyone in the stadium. 2-1 Tokyo walk-off win.

Oshimoto got the win for his scoreless ninth inning, and Ishii gave a post-game speech that drew tears from several in attendance (not me).

The Tokyo Swallows now have a few final days to prepare for their upcoming home series against the Yomiuri Giants who will venture to Jingu from Suidobashi this Saturday for game one of the first stage of the Central League Climax Series. The game starts at 6:30PM. See you there.

Notes:

For the record, tonight was Ishii’s first top team appearance since 2006. His best year, for those that like to reminisce, was 2005 when he amassed 37 saves and a 1.95 ERA in 61 appearances.

Balentien came up with a very nice sliding catch in the top of the third to keep things in check for Tateyama. It was arguably one of his finer defensive plays of the year in right field.

Hiroshima fans are awesome. They stayed for Ishii’s retirement speech and many of them were still in the left field stands when he finished his tour around the field to thank the fans. After that, they shouted across to us (in unison) wishing us luck in the Climax Series. Very classy folks.

Balentien finished the season with a batting average of .228 which meant that Kozo won the bet and Mac had to buy him a beer after the seventh inning.

Balentien finished the 2011 campaign top of the Central in home runs (31), slugging (.469), and strikeouts (131). He also finished fourth in RBI (76).

Aoki finished first in games (144), at-bats (583), and runs scored (73).

Tanaka took first in Tak-bunts (62).

Hatakeyama led the league in walks (78).

The Tokyo Swallows finished the 144 game season 2.5 games behind Chunichi and one game ahead of the third place Yomiuri Giants.

The Swallows scored more runs than any other team in the Central (484), but were second worst in runs allowed (504).

Nice way to end the regular season.

]]> http://tokyoswallows.com/2011/10/25/102511-hiroshima-home/feed/ 8 http://tokyoswallows.com/2011/10/21/monday-review-17/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=monday-review-17 http://tokyoswallows.com/2011/10/21/monday-review-17/#comments Fri, 21 Oct 2011 11:32:09 +0000 Kozo http://tokyoswallows.com/?p=10893 Welcome to the Monday Review, in which we’ll look back at the week that was and look ahead to the week that will be. We hope a recurring weekly review column will help readers identify some trends that can’t be covered in a single game report. We’re still trying to work out the format, so let us know what you’d like to see in the comments.

We need to officially change the name of this column, since it’s not Monday and I don’t want to be limited by the title. It’s something we’ll have to work on in the offseason. In the meantime, I’ll be giving you some news updates and roster analysis to mull over before the start of the Climax Series next Saturday.

Senryokugai Players: Earlier this month the Swallows announced that 8 players will be cut by the team at the end of the season. The players are LHP Masaru Sato, RHP Shun Takaichi, RHP Hiromitsu Takagi, RHP Masahiro Yoshikawa, LHP Naoya Okamoto, C Atsushi Kinugawa, INF Ryo Yoshimoto, and OF Toshihiro Nakao. Of the listed players, Kinugawa will be given a front office position with the team, and many of the other players were undecided as to what they wanted to do in the future. No major surprises here, and we wish all these players the best in their future endeavors.

Potential Roster Moves: The Swallows have been going crazy with roster moves since the last Monday Review, and we won’t be going over them all. Instead, we’ll be examining where certain players are now and how our post-season roster is shaping up. As of today the Swallows only have 23 players out of a possible 28 on their active roster. Any player removed from the active roster on or before the 19th would be eligible to return in time for Game 1 of the Climax series on the 29th. Among the players not on the active roster who may get recalled in the playoffs are Ishikawa, Kawabata, Whitesell, Kyuko, Barnette, Muranaka, Yoshinori, Shichijo, and Iihara. I’ll give a quick update on the status of each player.

• Ishikawa was removed from the active roster on the 19th, and he should be expected to return on the 29th. Many outlets are now reporting that Ishikawa will be the Swallows’ game 1 starter, and that he may throw in a Phoenix League (fall league) game as warm up. The chances of Ishikawa NOT getting recalled seems slim to none at this point.
• Kawabata was removed from active roster at the same time as Ishikawa. Apparently he had been feeling pain in his left wrist since a game against Hiroshima in September, and was taken off the active roster for that reason. The pains may have been what contributed to his 5-for-45 batting in October. He’s said he’ll be aiming to return in time for the CS, but the status of his health is concerning.
• Whitesell was taken off the roster with right flank pains on the 9th. But there have been no other reports as to his status since. Obviously having Whitesell’s bat on the bench would be a big help to a team struggling to get its offense going.
• Kyuko returned to the team on the 11th, but had a couple of rocky outings (2.1 IP, 5 ER, in 3 appearances) and was taken of the active roster on the 20th. No word as to whether Kyuko is injured and whether he can be expected back for the playoffs. Since Kyuko was taken off the active roster on the 20th, he would only be eligible to return for Game 2 of the first round.
• Barnette’s case is even more mysterious than Kyuko’s case. Barnette was recalled to the active roster at the same time as Kyuko but was taken off the roster 3 days later without ever getting into a game. Barnette has not pitched in a first team game since September 3, and hasn’t pitched in ni-gun games as far as I can see. No details have been released as to Barnette’s condition. Like Kyuko, we’d love to have a prime Barnette back for the playoffs, but it would be a concern if he takes the mound for the first time in the CS.
• Muranaka was taken off the active roster on the 15th after pitching ineffectively on the 14th. Muranaka is healthy as far as we know, so I’d expect him back on the roster for the playoffs.
• The current word on Yoshinori is that he could potentially return if the team makes it to the Nippon Series, but not any sooner.
• Shichijo was demoted from the team after a series of rough outings in late September, but would be available to the team unless he has a hidden injury. He was not on the initial Phoenix League roster so he may be rusty if he were to join the team.
• Finally Iihara would be available to the team if he is needed.

As you can see from the above list our team has been suffering through injury and our roster is somewhat in flux and other players have not been able to fill in the gap. As reported earlier by Chris, Keizo Kawashima will not be able available to the team as he underwent ligament surgery (possibly Tommy John surgery?) on his right elbow and will be out for a whole year.

Left Field: One of the first topics I ever handled on the Monday Review was our left field situation. At the time, the solution was putting Hatake in left, and that worked for a while. However, the big man’s defensive inability in left combined with some cooling off by Whitesell led to a re-opening of the hole in left. The team has tried Iihara, Ueda, and Fukuchi over the last month. While all of them are more than adequate replacements in left field they haven’t been able to make up for the offense lost by having Whitesell come off the bench. It seems the team has settled on Ueda for the stretch run.

Have we settled on a left fielder for the playoffs?

2011 Draft: The 2011 Draft will occur on the 27th. I will be posting a draft preview sometime next week. Let me know if there are any players you’d like me to cover.

Retirement Game: Our last game is on Tuesday, and as predicted in the last Monday Review, the final game will be a retirement game. Hirotoshi Ishii will be given an opportunity to pitch in one last pro game prior to his retirement. There were no comments in regards to Hamanaka and Guiel, but it seems those players will not be coming into the game.

I Want Love: As mentioned by Chris and Dave in their last podcast, I”m in need to love and feedback for this column. Let me know if you like this column and if there’s anything I can do to make it better.

After a couple of weeks of feeling like there wasn’t much to write about, we’re back with another Monday review! This week we’ll cover the major roster moves made this week, well as go over all the retirement announcements made recently, and we’ll also spend a lot of time going over the stretch run from multiple view points.

Looking Back

Roster Moves: Due to injury and ineffectiveness our roster has been in flux recently. Muranaka was taken off the active roster on September 28 citing tightness in his throwing shoulder after a string of ineffective starts. Shichijo took his place on the roster, but lost it a day later after an ineffective start against the Tigers. Meanwhile Ishikawa and Kyuko both reportedly had fevers. Kyuko was taken off the active roster with Shichijo to get some rest, while Ishikawa missed his scheduled start but remained on the active roster. LHP Okamoto was brought up with the Kyuko/Shichijo demotion, but lost his top team spot on the 2nd in a major roster shake up. Okamoto, Tetsuya Yamamoto, Takeuchi, and Miwa lost their spot on the active roster in favor of Hitoshi Yamamoto, Kato, Hashimoto, Fukuchi, and Yuichi. One day later, Keizo Kawashima was taken off the active roster. The Swallows’ active roster currently stands at 26 men, which means that 2 spots are open for a call up. Kyuko and Muranaka would be eligible to return this upcoming weekend. Yoshinori was rumored to be coming back during the Swallows’ 9 game stretch in September, but subsequent rumors have mentioned that he would not be able to return during the regular season. Tony Barnette was supposed to be shut down for 3 weeks at the beginning of September, so he may be coming back soon, but there is no news on Tony’s present condition.

While the moves on the offensive side are mostly cosmetic since our starting core has been fairly established, the moves on the pitching side point to a team in flux. We’re starting to run out of quality starters and we’ll have to hand the ball to a group of younger unproven relievers if the starters can’t go deep. The absence of Kyuko and Barnette also puts a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Matsuoka and Oshimoto late in the game in key situations. Our current rotation is Tateyama, Masubuchi, Akagawa, Hitoshi Yamamoto (?), and Ishikawa (assuming he returns tomorrow). Not quite the rotation that got us here.

Retirement News: We’ve already covered the retirement announcement of Aaron Guiel, but two more Swallows announced their intention to retire after the season. Hirotoshi Ishii and Osamu Hamanaka will be retiring after the season.

Hirotoshi Ishii

Hirotoshi Ishii is a life-long Swallow that was drafted in the 4th round of the 1995 draft. Starting in 1999, Ishii started getting regular playing time as a lefty arm out of the bullpen. He had a breakout season in 2002 in which he appeared in a league high 69 games, and posted a 1.51 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP, on his way to be named Most Valuable Reliever. Ishii and Ryota Igarashi made up the duo ‘Rocket Boys’ as the top lefty/righty pair out of the bullpen after the departure of Shingo Takatsu in 2004. Beyond his play with the Swallows, Ishii has played for Japan in the 2004 Olympics and the inaugural World Baseball Classic in 2006. Ishii had always expressed a strong desire to play in the Majors, but the team would not post him. The team initially promised to post him after the 2004 season, but reneged on the promise after the team changed managers in the off-season. The team finally promised to post Ishii after the 2006 season if he pitched one more full season. Unfortunately, Ishii injured his shoulder during that season and would not pitch at the top level again. Ishii has been rehabbing his shoulder ever since and has appeared in a handful of ni-gun games over the years. Ishii announced his decision to retire on the 29th and thanked the club for giving him the opportunity to try to return to baseball.

Osamu Hamanaka joined the Swallows prior to this season as a potential right handed bat off the bench. After a hot spring, Hamanaka was the team’s opening day stater in left field but lost the job to Hatakeyama after only 3 games. Hamanaka was drafted in 1996 by the Tigers and spent 11 years with the club before moving to the Orix Buffaloes in 2008. Since 2003, Hamanaka has been bothered by a right shoulder injury which has kept him out of the line up on and off for years. Hamanaka cited the injury and his inability to give it his all on the field as reasons for retiring after the season.

Quo Vadimus

The Schedule Up Ahead: The Swallows are about to start a stretch in which they will play 12 games in 12 days. Things will kick off at the Kyocera Dome tomorrow with a 3 game series against the Tigers, followed by a 3 game weekend series at Jingu. Then, the Swallows will travel to Nagoya for a critical 4 game series against the Dragons which may decide the pennant race. The marathon will cap off with a rain make up game against the Tigers at Jingu, followed by another make up game at Yokohama. After that insane stretch, the Swallows will get 2 days off before visiting Koshien for a game, and a game at Nagoya the next day. The Swallows will have 5 days rest before finally wrapping up their regular season with a home game at home.

Win Percentage Table: The final standing are calculated by winning percentage in which ties do not count, formula is W%=W/(144-T).. Therefore a team with 14 ties will have their winning percentage calculated out of 130 games, rather than 144 games.  Thus, with the season winding down, you can make a table of what the team’s win percentage will be depending on their record in the remaining games. Using the table you can see how you compare with other teams depending on their records. Thus we present the win percentage tables as of October 3rd for the top 4 teams in the Central League.

The first thing you may notice is that the Swallows have already guaranteed themselves a winning season. The table also illustrates the gulf that exists between the Swallows and the Tigers, meaning the Swallows’ place in the Climax series is quite safe. You can also use the table to figure out the minimum number of wins the team will need depending on how they do in a head to head. So if the Swallows take 4 out of 5 games from the Dragons, the Dragons would finish with a .5735 winning percentage if they win all their other games. Thus, the Swallows would need to go 5-5 in their other games to finish above the Dragons. Obviously, as games get played you can eliminate possible records and narrow the list of scenarios. If any teams tie the table will need to be reworked to lower the denominator.

Retirement Ceremony Scenarios: The team has traditionally used the last home game of the year to recall the retiring players to the top team to give them one last chance to play at Jingu and give the fans a chance to say goodbye. While imports have typically not received this kind of treatment, the team has hinted that they would try to work something out with Guiel in response to the outpouring of support by the fans. However, this year, depending on where we end up in the standings the team may not be able to afford removing an active player from the roster lest we lose their services for the beginning of the playoffs. Because players removed from the active roster cannot be re-added for 10 days, the team will have to know their playoff situation at least 10 days prior to their first Climax Series game (Oct. 29 for round 1, Nov. 2 for round 2).

Hoping for some more fun times!

This week we’ll deviate a little from our usual formula. This week we’ll only focus on just two main topics. First, we will unpack all the roster moves that went down this week and discuss their implications. The second half will look past this week’s games and give you a summery of the games that lie ahead for the Swallows in the home stretch. These topics still roughly follow the ‘Week That Was’ and ‘Quo Vadimus’ themes, so we’ll keep those headings. So, without further ado let’s get on with our analysis.

The Week That Was

Roster Moves: Last week’s roster moves began with the recall of injured speedster Kazuki Fukuchi and young catcher Yuhei Nakamura. Yasushi Iihara was sent down to make room on the roster. The recall of Nakamura was interesting as it meant that the Swallows were carrying 3 catchers on the roster. The move seemed to be designed to give veteran catcher Aikawa some rest for the home stretch, as Kawamoto was given 3 starts at catcher this week. Kawamoto started 2 games in the sweltering Jingu and played significant innings in the game he did start. The return of Fukuchi was seen as a plus as when healthy, he’s a great defensive reliever and a pinch running threat. Unfortunately it seems that he may not have returned in 100% condition as he was removed from the roster earlier today.

The next move that occurred last week was the recall of Tatsuyoshi Masubuchi in favor of Chikara Onodera on Thursday. The removal of Onodera was not a difficult but there was some speculation that Masubuchi would be returning as a reliever given that Katsuki Akagawa started Thursday’s game. Those speculations were quickly shot out of the water with the surprise announcement that Shohei Tateyama would be removed from the active roster due to finger discomfort on his throwing hand. The source of the discomfort has not been revealed in the media, and the timetable for Tateyama’s return is unknown. Young Tetsuya Yamamoto was called up for the first time in Tateyama’s place, and he pitched effectively in relief on Saturday.

The final major move last week was the recall of Aaron Guiel and Yuichi, for Whitesell and Miyade. While this move comes as bit of a surprise, it’s not inconsistent with the Swallows recent moves to rest ineffective guys (see: Aikawa) and take a quick look at everyone. While we love Guiel here at Tsubamegun we expect his stay with the top team to be short unless he can perform big right away. Guiel has only appeared in 15 ni-gun games this season, most recently on August 12, and has been doing most of his work in workouts and in the batting cage. Yuichi in his stint in ni-gun has put up good numbers and has the potential to keep Miyade off the top team as a right handed bat off the bench.

For those counting potential return dates, the earliest that Lim can return to the active roster is August 23rd, Tateyama on the 30th, and Whitesell on the 31st.

Alright, let's look at a funny picture before we move on!!!

Quo Vadimus

The Swallows have played one game under two-thirds of their schedule, and now have 49 games left in their season. Instead of just looking at this week’s games, this week’s Quo Vadimus will look at our game counts against each of our Central League rivals and look at how we’ve done against the so far. We’ll look at our competition in a particular order. (We’ll let you guess the reasoning behind the order.)

Giants: The Swallows have already played out most of their string against the Giants, having played 20 games to the tune of a 10-6-4 record. Even with 4 games remaining the Swallows have already guaranteed their first non-losing season against the Giants in 11 years. The remaining 4 games will be split between a 3 game Jingu series to kick off September and a single rain make up date at the Tokyo Dome on September 20. The Swallows have been undefeated against the Giants at Jingu this season, going 2-0-2. Even if we include the Swallows’ home away from home games against the Giants, the Swallows are still undefeated at home with a 7-0-2 record. These numbers no doubt underscore the importance of getting homefield advantage by finishing ahead of the Giants.

Tigers: The Swallows still have half their games against the Tigers left on their schedule. In the first 12 games the Tigers have throughly spanked the Swallows to the tune of 3-9. The remaining 12 games will be split between 6 Jingu games and 6 away games (3 at Koshien and 3 at Kyocera Dome). The Swallows have fared marginally better at home getting 2 of their 3 wins in home games. Needless to say, the Swallows’ performance can greatly influence the outcome of the CL race and will be a good barometer of our playoff readiness. We need to show we can take the Tigers as we were not able to convincingly win against them when they were struggling early in the season.

Dragons: The Swallows have 11 games remaining against the team from Nagoya, and after this week’s Jingu series the last 8 games of this matchup will be played in the Nagoya Dome. The Swallows have a stellar 8-2-2 record against the Dragons so far, but save for their 1-1-1 visit to Nagoya earlier this month, most of that record comes at home. The schedule will see the Swallows play two 4 game series in the Nagoya Dome including the regular season ending series. Hopefully the Birds will have made the final series irrelevant, and being able to continue to beat up on the Dragons will help us do that.

Carp: The Carp have played us very competitively this year with the two teams tallying a 6-6-2 record so far. The 10 remaining games will be split up between 7 games at Jingu and a 3 game series at Mazda Stadium. The 7 Jingu game will be split between two 3 game series, and 1 random game on September 21. The Carp and the Tigers are the only teams against which the Swallows do not have a winning record. Incidentally, that fact extends into our home record as the Swallows have gone 1-3-1 in home games (1-2 at Jingu) against the Carp.  Interestingly, the Swallows have gone 3-0-1 in games started by last year’s Sawamura Award winner, Kenta Maeda. The Carp have played everyone quite tough this year, but should still be beatable. If we want to show we’re a cut above the CL muddle, taking easy games off the Carp will be key.

BayStars: Even with all the shake up in the CL this year, the Yokohama BayStars remain everyone’s punching bag being the only team to sport a losing record against each team. That being said, the BayStars have been surprisingly competitive against the Giants (5-7), Dragons (8-9), and Tigers (6-8-2), while being blasted by the Carp (3-11) and the Swallows (2-9-3). With the BayStars 11.5 games behind FIFTH place in the CL, it’s time for Swallows’ fans to become secondary BayStars fans and cheer for them to play spoiler against the rest of the CL. The Swallows themselves still have 9 games left between the BayStars, split between 3 Jingu games and 6 Yokohama games.

Those counting above will note a 22/27 split between home and road games the rest of the way. Even as the Swallows struggle no one team has really stepped up. As long as the other teams continue to beat each other up the Swallows will make the playoff playing middling baseball, but unless the Swallows pick up their game they may not last long in the playoffs.

The Swallows finished off their Interleague adventure by splitting series with the Lions and Marines. The Swallows ended the Interleague with a 10-12-2 record, good enough for a sixth place finish. They were 3 games back of the top CL team, the Chunichi Dragons, who finished in 4th with a 14-10 record. Hopefully the Swallows will be able to regain their form against more familiar CL teams once the season restarts this Friday.

The Week That Was

A Totally Random Observation: I don’t want to try to parrot Dave’s great recap about Tuesday’s great comeback against Seibu. It was truly a magical and thrilling to watch the game at Jingu, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t toot my horn a little. Last week I noted that the Swallows were undefeated this season in Interleague games in which they score at least 3 runs. So when Balentien pounded a homerun to left field to make it 5-3 Seibu, I sarcastically noted that we were going to win. Little did I realize that it would actually come true. That totally random held through the rest of Interleague and the Swallows went 9-0 in games in which they managed to score at least 3 runs. However, another way to put that observation is that the Swallows failed to score at least 3 runs in 15 Interleague games.

The Story of the Run Differential: Run differential is seen as a very basic look at a team’s overall strength as a team. Going into Interleague the Swallows had a +17 run differential through 25 games (102 runs scored – 85 runs allowed). In 24 games of Inerleague the Swallows recorded a -33 differential (57 RS- 90 RA). For comparison, the Hawks, the Interleague winners, came away with a +71. The Dragons finished with a +11, and the Giants, who finished a half game behind the Swallows, had a -2. If these kinds of performances continue against the Central League teams we’ll quickly be saying goodbye to our status as league leaders. As injuries begin to pile up (see more below) it’s not a gimme that we can start back where we left off against CL teams.

Tateyama the Ace: Tateyama was on fire throughout the Interleague, giving up only 2 earned runs in 6 games started. The Swallows went 5-0-1 in games started by Tateyama. In other words, tateyama played a hand in half of our Interleague wins this year. Tateyama pitched 41.0 innings, recorded an ERA of 0.44, a WHIP of 0.73, and 26 Ks. By the numbers, Tateyama was probably the second best pitcher during the Interleague, behind Yu Darvish who had an absolutely sick Interleague.

A Not So Good Interleague Leader: Josh Whitesell lead the Interleague with 31 strikeouts, 4 Ks ahead of Seibu’s Nakamura despite getting 21 fewer plate appearances. For the season, Whitesell is striking out once every 3.0 plate appearances.

Injury Update: Both Kawabata and Muranaka have not been heard from since their injuries. Looking back on the initial injury reports they were expect back around this time. A check of Kawabata’s blog shows that he only started taking fielding practice last week. As for Muranaka, according to media reports he has pitched in the bullpen and is expected to make some Toda appearances this month before rejoining the team. Ogawa mentioned to the press this week that he expects to get Kawabata, Muranaka, and Yoshinori, back in time for the start of a 9 game stretch that starts on July 12. No clue as to when Fukuchi is expected to return.

Fukuchi Hurt

All Star Vote Update: According to the latest numbers released earlier today all the Swallows mentioned last week have solidified their positions except Hatakeyama, who trails Ogasawara by a scant 346 votes at first base. Ogasawara is currently hitting under .200 and has no business starting, let alone playing, in the All Star game this year. Hatakeyama may be losing votes to voters who are trying to vote him in as an outfielder, but either way losing to Ogasawara would be unacceptable.

Roster Moves: Young outfielder Jun Matsui made his first team debut prior to Tuesday’s game. Yamagishi was sent down after Tuesday’s game and was replaced on the roster by Kosuke Matsui. Hitoshi Yamamoto was removed from the roster after his ineffective start on Wednesday. Fukuchi was also removed from the active roster after dislocating his left shoulder in Saturday’s game. Yamamoto and Fukuchi have not been replaced, don’t expect any moves until Friday before the Yokohama game. The biggest roster move this week was the addition of ikusei pitcher Rafael Fernandes to the 70-man roster. We speculated on this move a few weeks ago, and with Fernandes pitching reasonably well at Toda, expect him to get some time with the big team some time soon.

Fernandes signed his first Standard Player Contract.

Quo Vadimus

Our Opponents: The Central League schedule will restart with a 3 game set against Yokohama at Jingu. With 4 days off, it’s not entirely clear how the BayStars will readjust their rotation. Although seeing Takasaki and rookie Suda, seems like a strong possibility. Yokohama was in their usual low form throughout the Interleague, so how our offense does against Yokohama will be a good barometer as to whether our offensive woes are part of a bigger problem.

Potential Rotation: With the beginning of CL play it is expected that the Swallows will go to a 6 man rotation. However, with only Tateyama and Ishikawa as established starters, and Yoshinori and Muranaka a few weeks away, it’ll be interesting to see who gets the call to start. The long anticipated debut of rookie Shichijo will probably happen during the Yokohama, as he has been pitching on Saturdays at Toda. Also, expect Yamamoto to be recalled at the earliest opportunity just as he was recalled fairly soon after his previous bad outing with the first team. Other Toda starters that have put up decent numbers recently are Mikinori Kato and Rafael Fernandes. Nakazawa and Masubuchi may also make their way into the rotation as well.

Orix Buffaloes 1

Tokyo Yakult Swallows 3

Streak: Won 1 Last 5: LLDLW

(Meiji Jingu Stadium)

That’s right folks! That’s not a typo. The Swallows managed to score more points than their opponent. For those of you who don’t remember what that’s called, that’s called a win. Today’s lineup featured a minor tweak, dropping Tanaka down to the 3 spot and putting Fukuchi in the 2 spot. Hatakeyama got the night off, as Whitesell was given the start at first.

	Swallows		Buffaloes
1	CF Aoki	1	CF Sakaguchi
2	LF Fukuchi	2	2B Kajimoto
3	2B Tanaka	3	RF Taguchi
4	1B Whitesell	4	1B Lee
5	RF Balentien	5	3B Hessman
6	3B Miyamoto	6	LF T-Okada
7	C Kawamoto	7	SS Obiki
8	SS Morioka	8	C Ito
9	P Ishikawa	9	P Kisanuki

Yoshinori gets the win!

Yoshinori took the mound for the Swallows and got 3 quick outs to start the game. The Swallows got on the board in the bottom of the inning, and lead in a game for the first time since the first inning of the Rakuten game on the 20th. Things got started when Fukuchi got his first hit of the season driving a one out ball into shallow left field and using his legs to stretch it into a double. Kisanuki proceeded to have major control issues as he walked Tanaka and Whitesell on 8 consecutive pitches to load the bases. The wildness continued into Balentien’s at bat, as Kisanuki quickly fell behind 2-0. Kisanuki finally threw a strike low and inside, which Balentien dutifully drove to left field allowing Fukuchi and Tanaka to score. 2-0 Swallows Miyamoto and Kawamoto were not able to strech the lead but the damage was dealt. The two runs were the first time the Swallows have scored more than a single run in an inning since their May 15th game against Yokohama.

Yoshinori ran into some trouble in the second. After getting the first out by striking out Lee in 7 pitches, Yoshinori put Hessman on base via a dead ball. T-Okada followed by hitting a sharp single to right field. Balentien mishandled the ball a little allowing Hessman to proceed to third base with challenge. With one out and men on the corners Obiki took the second pitch he saw and got a hit into left, allowing Hessman to score. 2-1 Swallows Yoshinori settled down and got Ito to strikeout for out #2. The Swallows got out of the inning with a fine play by Morioka for the last out. Yoshinori managed to jam Kisanuki on the first pitch, but the sailed over Yoshinori’s head and was headed to an awkward no man’s land in front of the second base bag. Morioka managed to grab the high ball on the run and get a throw off to first that just barely got the runner out at first.

Morioka opened the next frame with a hit to center field. Despite some difficulties, Yoshinori managed to get a bunt down to advance Morioka to second. Aoki struck out looking on a questionable ball low and inside. With 2 out and a man on second Fukuchi got his bat around on a 2-1 ball for his second double of the game and season, which allowed Morioka to score. 3-1 Swallows

From there it was all pitching. Yoshinori allowed runners to reach base in each inning from the 3rd to the 7th, mostly through walks, but got through each jam by striking out Buffaloes. Yoshinori lasted until the eighth inning, before he handed the ball over to Lim for the ninth inning. Lim pitched a perfect ninth and sealed the win with a strikeout.

Notes

• Despite starting the game hot, the Swallows offense only managed 1 hit and 2 walks after the second inning.
• Yoshinori pitched 8 innings with 128 pitches, allowing 5 hits, 2 walks, and 2 dead balls. He collected 13 strikeouts, which puts him in a tie for the CL lead with 50 on the season. Today’s win gives Yoshinori 5 for the season, which also puts him in a tie for first in the CL. Yoshinori is third in the final triple crown category with an ERA of 1.76.
• Kawamoto started his second consecutive game. Catcher Masakazu Fukukawa was called up prior to yesterday’s game, which may indicate that Aikawa is dealing with a minor injury.
• The Swallows still lead the CL. They hold a 1 game lead over the second place Dragons, and Carp are not too far behind with 1.5 games separating them from the Swallows.
• The Swallows will have an off day tomorrow before playing 2 games over the weekend at the Seibu Dome.

Finally I’d like to remind everyone that we here at Tsubamegun are running a Takada Resignation Anniversay contest. We’ll be giving away nice prizes if you can creatively answer some simple questions. For more details click here.

Morioka, Fukuchi, and Yoshinori celebrate the win with Tsubakuro and the fans.

After going 1-3-1 in the first week, the Swallows rebounded nicely in week #2 going 5-0-1 against the Chunichi Dragons and the Hiroshima Carp. But just as it was important not to panic after week 1, it’s important not to get excited after week 2. The Birds still have 133 games to play and many things can still happen. As reference, the Swallows started 7-5 last year, and 6-5 the year before that, and we all know how those seasons ended up. If you look back through our season archives (2008, 2009, 2010), you’ll see that we are quite streaky so it’s best we reserve judgement until we get further along in the season. That being said there’s a lot to be happy about this week.

Left field and the 3 Spot: Since the beginning of the season the Swallows have, at various times, started Hamanaka (3 starts), Iihara (2), Takeuchi (3), Fukuchi (2), and Yuichi (1) in left field and batted them in the 3 spot. In limited at bats, no player has shown much of anything. All are batting below .200 (Fukuchi and Iihara are still without hits), and have OBPs below .250. Iihara, who by the end of last season was a regular outfielder, was sent down to ni-gun prior to Masubuchi’s first start, and it’s not clear what the team intends to do with him. Without any further information on Iihara’s condition it would seem like he would be the best candidate to start, as he has the greatest upside and is probably the second best fielder in the group after Fukuchi. Another option possibly worth exploring is starting either Hatakeyama or Whitesell in left. (More on that below.)

First base: Ever since Whitesell was held out of a game for right shoulder pains, Hatakeyama has started at first base and has been hitting very well. Some sources have attributed Hatakeyama’s success to the increased number of day games. Whatever the reason, Hatakeyama has certainly earned his playing time for now. However, it’s a shame to see Whitesell languish on the bench. Despite not hitting terribly well in his limited starts to begin the season, Whitesell is probably still perceived to be one of our scarier hitters, as evidenced by his 5 walks drawn (2 intentional) in just 17 plate appearances. He sports a BA/OBP/SLG line of .167/.412/.417 and has only seen 1 pinch hit appearance (Apr 19 vs. Chunichi) since being held out of the Yokohama game on the 17th. While Whitesells numbers did go down in September of last year, perhaps a sign that opposing scouts have a read on him, he certainly strikes more fear into opposing pitchers than the batters listed in the previous section. While Whitesell does not have any outfield starts, he did play a bit of left field in ni-gun prior to joining the first team last year. More likely, if we were to try to start both, Hatakeyama would play left as he did quite a bit last August. The big manchild leaves a lot to be desired defensively but the offensive returns may be interesting.

Aoki the robber? Prior to the start of the season there was talk of Aoki being given the green light, and that we would see more steals from our leadoff hitter this year. So far that hasn’t been true, through 11 games Aoki has recorded only 1 steal. Tanaka remains Aoki’s preferred method of reaching second as Hiroyasu leads the league with 9 sacrifices. On the other hand, Fukuchi is working hard to regain the stolen base crown, as he leads the league with 6 steals.

Beware Pitcher Abuse: Last week was a great week for Swallows starters, except for Takaichi. The other side of these performances is the high pitch counts that were used to accomplish them. Ishikawa (122), Yoshinori (123), Tateyama (123), and Yamamoto (110) all threw over 100 pitches last week. Masubuchi got into trouble after 87 pitches last Sunday, after he had thrown 123 pitches in his previous start. While I’m less worried about veterans like Ishikawa and Tateyama, overuse of young arms like Masubuchi, Yoshinori, and Yamamoto is a concern. On the reliever side, Matsuoka and Lim both made 4 appearances last week including 3 consecutive appearances in the Hiroshima series.

Quo Vadimus: This week the Swallows will face the Giants at “home” in Shizuoka and the Tigers at Koshien. The Giants will be coming off 4 days of rest, as they last played on the 21st against the Tigers. No idea how the extended off days will affect the Giants’ starters, but the Giants have gotten some pretty strong starts from guys like Utsumi, Kubo, and rookie southpaw phenom Sawamura. On the other hand, there seems to be some confusion in the Giants bullpen as their closer Yamaguchi has gone down with injury. The Giants’ bats seem to be on track as usual, but we’ll see how the off days have affected them. We’ll most likely be facing the team from across the way with the top of our rotation, Ishikawa, Yoshinori, and Tateyama. For those of us in Japan the first two games will be shown on Fuji TV, although if you understand Japanese I’d turn down the sound as the announcers will no doubt be plugging the “visitors.”

The Tigers also have had some strong pitching success early in the season, but have not gotten their bats on track quite yet as last year’s golden boy Matt Murton is hitting a paltry .224.  If the Tigers’ rotation holds true, expect to face Kubo, Messenger, and old man Shimoyanagi. We’ll probably counter with Yamamoto, a young call up, and Masubuchi. It’ll be the first time the Swallows meet the Tigers this year, and thanks to some quirks in the post-earthquake scheduling we won’t be seeing them again until July.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp 2

Tokyo Swallows 12

Streak: Won 3   Last 5: LLWWW

(Jingu Stadium)

Extra base-hits were the order of the day as Tokyo banged out nine of them in their destruction of struggling Hiroshima.

1. Aoki (CF)
2. Tanaka (2B)
3. Ihara (RF)
4. Whitesell (1B)
5. Hatakeyama (LF)
6. Aikawa (C)
7. Miyamoto (3B)
8. Kawabata (SS)
9. Ishikawa (P)

The Swallows took a 1st inning lead off Carp starter Imae as a walked Aoki was later brought home by a Whitesell double for 1-0 Tokyo.

After that it was Ishikawa’s turn to struggle as he gave up a run in each of the 2nd and 3rd innings off 5 hits and the Carp had themselves a 2-1 lead.

But from then on it was all Tokyo as the Swallows put up 3 runs in each of the 4th, 5th and 6th frames to put this one out of sight.

In the 4th, a Whitesell walk and a Miyamoto single set the table for Kawabata, who smacked one off the top of the wall in left for a two-run triple and it was 3-2 Tokyo. The next run came from the most unlikely of sources as pitcher Ishikawa hit one to the wall in rightfield for a double which made it 4-2.

In the 5th, a leadoff walk for Tanaka and a double from Ihara put two men in scoring positions for Whitesell, who hit another double to make it 6-2. A Hatakeyama single (who was replaced by pinch-runner Fukuchi), and two outs left men on the corners for Kawabata, and he doubled to score another run for 7-2.

And so on to the 6th, where an Aoki single and a Tanaka walk put two men on for Whitesell to bring home two more home with his third double of the game (this one the luckiest of the three, a bloop fly that landed in the no-mans land between infield and out in left) and it was 9-2. Whitesell was later brought home by and Aikawa single to end the three innings of scoring festivities with the score at 10-2.

The final two runs followed in the 8th, with a Ihara double, a Fukuchi triple (11-2) and a run-scoring groundout from Aikawa making it 12-2.

On the pitching front, the bullpen got a much needed rest as Ishikawa overcame his early troubles to go 8 innings (12H/2K/1BB) which was good enough for his fourth win on the trot to put his record at 6-8/3.68. De La Cruz pitched a one-hit scoreless 9th in relief.

The Swallows racked up 15 hits in total (to the Carp’s 13), with every member of the starting lineup bar Tanaka managing a hit. The standout was Whitesell who went 3 for 4 with a walk with 5 RBIs to show for his toils. Whitesell is now batting .306 with a .434 OBP and a whopping .710 slugging percentage.

Not far behind him was Kawabata, who went 3 for 5 with 3 RBIs of his own and is now batting .333. Hopefully he can continue in this vein so we can see someone claim the shortstop position as their own. Someone has to step up soon, as it’s been quite some time since Miyamoto was switched to 3rd.

Tokyo will go for the sweep Thursday evening at Jingu.