Click here for part one: OYWI: NPB Moving Forward?

After a detailed trip through some of the prevailing wisdom on NPB in general, which we’ll return to in the next edition of this interview series, it seemed like the right time to focus exclusively on the birds for a bit. That’s what part two is all about.

The 2010 season, as you’ll recall, was quite the ride! And if the Central League had been more like the 2009 edition, then the birds would have easily walked into the playoffs in second place with home field advantage for the first stage of the Climax Series.

However, 2010 saw three teams put together solid full-season performances while Tokyo didn’t get its act together until June. Even though they were the winningest team in the league from July to the end of the season, it wasn’t enough to overtake the coasting Yomiuri Giants.

The big question now is whether this whole coming-up-short act is going to continue. As the Japan Times’ Jason Coskrey aptly told us, Tokyo “is the Houston Texans of the NPB. They have the pieces, they just seem to underachieve.”

Credit where credit is due though. The Tokyo Swallows finished the 2010 season at 72-68-4 even though they were in 6th place with a record of 13-32-1 on May 26th when former manager Shigeru Takada finally stepped down.

The post-Takada turnaround, as we’ve said many times before, was other-worldly when considering how badly the team was playing just a week prior to Takada’s throwing in the towel (check here for the mid-May, Takada-inspired offensive stats).

My routine pouting about sacrifice bunting notwithstanding, Tokyo fans were afforded many reasons to be excited about baseball last season, and they are desperate for the good times to continue!

The pitching, of course, looks pretty good for 2011. The birds just re-signed Tony Barnette, the right-handed starter who showed flashes of dependability last season, and Lim inked a nest egg for his great-great-grandchildren during the off-season to ensure that we have a fearsome closer in the bullpen.

Teamed with the Daisuke Araki-guided rotation and middle relief, the Swallows look to have the makings of another solid pitching corps.

The offense, on the other hand, is a little bit more of a question mark. Guiel and Whitesell will be back, but D’Antona was unfortunately let loose. He had a rough season last year, but then again he was never given the day-to-day starts that helped him earn July MVP honors in 2009. Whoever picks him up will be getting a bargain.

An unknown quantity in the form of Wladimir Balentien has joined the squad

Balentien has spent time with Seattle and Cincinnati.

to compete with Guiel for a spot in the outfield, but no matter how that works out, expect big things from their neighbor in center, Norichika Aoki.

Barring major injury or posting system foolishness, Aoki will be playing in North America in 2012, so don’t be shocked if he puts up career-best numbers this season.

Iihara, Hatakeyama and Tanaka should continue to make their presence felt this year, and the competition for the starting spot at short should be fun to watch.

If Miyamoto and Aikawa can stay off IR (hey, can we get the deep-muscle-massage crew that keeps all the old guys on the Phoenix Suns roster healthy?!), then there’s definitely sustainable hope for the offense. Third place in the Central is what I’m thinking for 2011.

But that’s just my opinion.

Apparently, I don’t have a whole lot of company.

The general consensus seems to be that the birds will finish fourth. Gen Sueyoshi from Yakyu Baka and Patrick Newman from NPB Tracker explain that the top three teams from 2010 are still too strong for Tokyo to easily make a move into the playoffs.

“[Tokyo] obviously has some top-notch talent, but they have challenges in that they won’t score as much as Yomiuri or Hanshin, and they’re looking up at Chunichi in terms of run prevention.

“Yakult has great rotation depth and a pretty good bullpen though, so if they can hit a little more consistently and one of Yomiuri/Hanshin/Chunichi falters, they have a shot at a playoff spot,” said Newman.

Sueyoshi largely agreed that the Swallows are likely destined for fourth place this year due to the relative strength of the wealthier clubs that finished ahead of them last season.

Maybe Tokyo can use these guys as the second farm team?

At the same time, he pointed to the young talent that all three of 2010′s B-class teams have waiting in the wings as a source of excitement for the next few seasons.

“The Swallows have a fairly solid core of young players and might be poised to make some noise in the near future.

“But I also think that Yokohama and Hiroshima have a fairly solid core group of young players and things could get interesting in the CL over the new few years,” he said.

Good point. Especially as far as Tokyo is concerned. The Swallows haven’t got short figured out yet, but there are three or four very interesting young players who could easily keep veterans Fujimoto and Kawashima on the bench in 2011.

Kawabata (23), Morioka (26) and Onizaki (27) are three players who showed promise last year, and Tokyo’s first round draft pick, Tetsuto Yamada, should also get a decent shot at playing between Miyamoto and Tanaka in Tokyo’s infield.

Accordingly, another reason for Tokyo fans to be optimistic, at least over the medium to long-term, is the fact that Chunichi, Hanshin and Yomiuri’s lineups are a bit ass-heavy with aging superstars.

Sueyoshi pointed to Yomiuri as a case in point: “While they’re putting a lot of effort into growing their farm system, I don’t know if/when they’ll be able to replace stars like Michihiro Ogasawara, Alex Ramirez, and Shinnosuke Abe.”

It should be very interesting to see if homegrown stars such as Sakamoto and Yamaguchi can live up to the expectations that have been placed on them by the Yomiuri organization and their fans.

At any rate, even if they can’t plug those holes with talent from their farm team, I think we can be confident that Yomiuri will just buy an all-star from another team as they did with Ogasawara and Ramirez.

And Tani.

And Kroon, Greisinger and Lee.

Coskrey was just slightly more optimistic about Tokyo’s chances when he talked to us.

“If they can convince themselves they can compete, then they will. Which is why I like Ogawa as their manager. He’s a good influence in the clubhouse.

“The new ball may keep more balls in the park and could be a great equalizer for their pitchers.

“The top three are going to be tough to beat. The team’s cheap ways of the past, losing Seth and Rami for instance, I think will keep them fourth, but I wouldn’t be that surprised to see them finish third.”

Well, the good news is that nobody, including us, has the team pegged to get run into the ground this season.

But the outlook for 2011 is not entirely rosy if you listen (as we do) to the opinions of Coskrey, Sueyoshi and Newman, three of the most attentive NPB writers you’ll find in English on the Internet.

In part three of this series we will return our focus to the general state of affairs in NPB and myriad minor details such as the value of Japanese print, TV and Internet media baseball coverage.

Takada resigned in May.

Tokyo Swallows fans witnessed it all in 2010: the resumption of the 2009 slump which ended up consuming the first two months of 2010; a change in manager; the addition of a cleanup bat; veteran pitchers refinding their form; an authoritative return to winning; and a bit of flirtation with the third and final playoff spot.

With any luck, 2011 will pick up right where 2010 left off. Minus all of the bunting, of course.

And while hopes may be high at Jingu, there will surely be a lot of optimism when several other teams start spring training in the not-too-distant future.

In an effort to survey current NPB trends and what changes may be afoot, Tsubamegun talked to some of the more well-known writers (English language) in the online yakyu community.

This is the first in a short series of articles featuring their thoughts and insights.

One thing that we asked everyone about was whether or not non-Japanese managers, who have fared very poorly in the league since Trey Hillman’s Fighters won the championship back in 2006, are finished in Japan for the foreseeable future.

Gen Sueyoshi, the one-man show at the irreplaceable Yakyu Baka, thinks that there won’t be any more work visa-toting managers in Japan any time soon.

“Some people think I’m over-reacting when I say this, and perhaps I am, but I tend to think that Marty Brown ruined things for non-Japanese managers.

“It also doesn’t help that the Chiba Lotte Marines won the Nippon Series the year after Bobby Valentine left.  And if Senichi Hoshino manages to do something similar with the Eagles…”

Ah, the Eagles.

Former Tokyo third baseman, Akinori Iwamura, decided to sign with them during the off-season after seeing

Hoshino got Rakuten to open the purse strings.

his MLB career get derailed by a knee injury. They should definitely be an improved unit considering the changes they’ve made over the past couple of months.

Marty Brown is out, and Hanshin-resurrecter, Senichi Hoshino, takes over a retooled offense (Kaz Matsui was also lured back to Japan from MLB).

Additionally, ace pitcher Iwakuma’s somewhat unexpected return to the starting rotation should keep naysayers at bay for the time being.

How nice would it be if the Yakult front office put a little extra coin into attracting top free agent talent like the Eagles and Fukuoka Softbank Hawks?

But before that happens, actually, it would be most prudent to develop the farm team in a way similar to what Yomiuri does. But alas, in the eyes of the parent company (Yakult) the minor league club doesn’t help market the yogurt/feminine beauty products manufacturer.

Idiots.

So how about a new owner for the Tokyo Swallows?

As stated repeatedly on this site, Tsubamegun is not at all opposed to the idea of the team being sold. We’d love to see a group of investors, a la John Henry’s NESV (Boston Red Sox; Liverpool Football Club), buy the team and show the rest of the league how to run a club as a profitable business in its own right.

Nevertheless, that won’t happen because non-Japanese are still banned from owning NPB teams, and even if they weren’t, NESV would quickly discover that doing business their way would involve the inevitable anchor of locking horns with the crusty owners of the Central League’s other five teams.

Where is this league headed?

Indeed, Patrick Newman, lead researcher and writer for NPB Tracker, says that NPB in general, and the Central League in particular, is in need of some fresh thinking.

“I’d really like to see a scrappy, competitive group come in and shake things up a bit,” Newman remarked.

Coincidentally perhaps, it seemed for a brief moment last month that the Swallows might be on the auctioneer’s block. But they weren’t.

Yakyu Baka’s Sueyoshi made the intriguing observation that the Swallows would ideally be purchased by an Internet or technology company of some sort. He pointed to the strength of the teams fronted by Rakuten and Softbank as a model for where NPB might find some fresh legs.

Fresh legs and a second wind are definitely what the league needs as it continues to lose the talent battle with MLB.

There are obviously so many things holding NPB back here. The league shoots itself in the foot, both of them really, at nearly every conceivable opportunity.

As mentioned earlier, player development is still a big concern. So is the way that the owners deal with the athletes and their neutered player’s union.

And these foundational issues, while integral to the righting of NPBs ship, are just the tip of the enormous yakyu dumb-berg.

Sueyoshi pointed to the non-Japanese active roster player quote as one of a litany of problems.

“The NPB could do with more foreign players, especially if good players continue to leave for the MLB.

“I know there are people that are against it because it might end up keeping Japanese players out of the line-up, but really I think it would lead to more competition and would improve the league in general.

“And a more competitive league could help keep current players more interested in staying in the NPB.  It could also lead to better performances on the international stage.”

Newman, for his part, urges increased use of the ikusei contracts to expand the pool of talent that teams have access to.

“Signing and developing amateur talent from other countries is another opportunity; Wei-Yin Chen is obviously the current big success story to look at.”

Indeed, these are concepts that many teams  find hard to grasp. The Tokyo Swallows are no exception.

I’m dreaming a little bit here, but it wouldn’t be a prohibitively expensive investment in a team’s long-term future to set up a second farm team, especially when considering the size and worth of the parent companies involved.

And I’d like to remind owners that their team’s farm club doesn’t necessarily have to be within a 30 minute

The tourist city of Nasu (Tochigi Prefecture) would likely foot part of the bill to bring a minor league baseball club to town.

drive of the top team’s stadium.

There’s nothing wrong with having an ikusei/rookie/second year player squad in a small city a couple of prefectures away. This country isn’t that big, and transportation here is second to none, so why can’t the Swallows place a second farm team in a small tourist city such as Nasu, Izu or Tsukuba?

But since the team’s farm system is mostly an afterthought, the birds seem content to rely on the luck of the annual amateur draft, a gambit that didn’t play out particularly well in 2010.

Further compounding Tokyo’s climb into the playoffs is the well-established fact that Yakult refuses to spend money on talent like Central League rivals Yomiuri, Hanshin and Chunichi routinely do.

In the next edition of this multi-part interview, Tsubamegun asks our yakyu journalism colleagues how well they think the Tokyo Swallows will do in 2011. Please check back here for part two in early January.

In the meantime, Tsubamegun would like to wish you and yours a very happy new year!

You can follow Sueyoshi and Newman on Twitter at @gwynar and @npbtracker, respectively.

Rikidozan's connection to this story is tangential, but rad.

Could #2 on the Tsubamegun‘s perennial wishlist come to fruition? Depends on how you see fervent denials.

Jiji reported today that Susume Fujita, CEO of online ad agency CyberAgent, firmly denied that his firm had any plans to purchase the Swallows or that he had been approached by Yakult with such an offer. He also said that he admired the success of Rakuten and SoftBank in owning baseball teams and had thought of the possibility of CyberAgent doing the same, but purely as a conjecture, not as a concrete plan or ambition. On the other hand, if a team were to approach him with a sales proposition, he would think about it.

Fujita went on to say that, while he happy with his company’s operating profit of around ￥10 billion, he would need two or three times that amount before he’d feel comfortable in having the cash to run a pro baseball team.

Yakult’s CEO also issued a flat denial and then issued some platitudes about trying to win, etc., which will presumably continue to not include actually doing things that would increase the chances of winning.

In a somewhat interesting, if tortured and confusing connection, it appears that there once worked for Yakult a man named Ogizono, who ran a division that broke away from the parent company and then used his influence to back a person or group that pushed the family of the late Rikidozan, possibly the most influential sporting figure in any country ever (it would not be specious to credit him with a fair bit of Japan’s postwar economic growth, at least indirectly), off the land in Shibuya on which Riki Sports Palace stood until 1967, a plot that has, since 1992, been the site of the Humax Building, which currently hosts the headquarters of a firm founded in 1998 known as CyberAgent.

Do I hear a curse of Rikidozan, anyone? (No, it wouldn’t make any sense at all, but it would sound awesome.)

Anywho, the actual news is that  both CyberAgent and Yakult firmly deny spurious rumors that there has been any talk of the Swallows being for sale.

Non-news that’s news.

Iwamura has been quoted saying that he preferred to stay in North America but that he really just wanted to play for a team that needed him.

I’d be very interested to hear if Tokyo even approached their former star player. Tokyo isn’t exactly in the business of spending money on the free agent market (we prefer to add to our roster with veterans who are on their way out such as Hamanaka and Miyade), so it’s possible that the birds never seriously considered putting an offer together.

But maybe Tokyo feels that Iwamura is on his way out as well. Who knows? Or maybe they just feel that there’s no room for him at this point as a starter. With Miyamoto still productive at third and Hatakeyama available to fill in for him when he needs the evening off, it might be difficult to justify the expense.

And there’s no reason to push Miyamoto back over to short to make space for the guy who used to play third for the Swallows. Tokyo has several young players platooning there (Onizaki, Kawabata and Araki are strong enough that the team recently cut Kajimoto). And Iwamura would have a very hard time replicating Tanaka’s range at second given his recent knee surgery.

Hey, maybe he’s just pissed that Aoki took his old jersey, so he prefers to play for a team that has the number one jersey still available.

Not really news or anything, but it’s interesting to see who else around the world ‘gets’ the double meaning within the team name.

This time around, it’s Johnny Knoxville showing some love both to the team and his baby boy, Rocco.

With the new Jackass movie to hit theaters soon, it’s clear that Johnny Knoxville is using the dupes at Tsubamegun to help advertise his new movie since Japan doesn’t have much of a talk show circuit to speak of.

More photos here.

No word yet on whether or not Johnny actually likes the team. His agent hasn’t returned any of our calls.

There’s an article up today on the online version of the Daily Y*****i about our very own Josh Whitesell.

Have yourselves a read, but remember to wash your screen down with disinfectant afterwards considering it’s source. Alternatively torch your computer and buy a new one just to be on the safe side.

The results don’t exactly jive with what the team and the media are saying about these guys. Most Japanese baseball aficionados won’t find it surprising that D’Antona and Guiel particularly have been picked on relentlessly in the press for not putting up bigger numbers at the plate. Well Gen adds some perspective to the dialogue that shouldn’t be missed!

Click here to read the post on your own.

Valid points abound in the article, all of which are in lockstep with what has been uttered on this website and elsewhere. Here’s one choice tidbit referring to the front office’s pledge of support for Tokyo’s beloved number 88:

“To have to give Takada a vote of confidence at this point — 45 games into a 144-game season — is to basically admit he’s not getting the job done.”

All of this is, of course, ignoring the fact, temporarily at least, that there’s no new-age manager with a proven track record currently available (or affordable enough) to take over, but many will agree that any manager who simply lets the players play can help lead this team out of sixth place in the Central.

More from the team on this point:

“Forcing people out of jobs is not the Yakult group’s business structure,” [team president] Suzuki told Kyodo News last week. “We want him [Takada] to serve out the [last year of his three-year] term.”

Well, it’s happened to Yakult managers six times in the past, so why not now?

Read Coskrey’s article here.

Kato (right) at a press conference after Japan won the 2009 WBC.

Ryozo Kato, NPB commissioner and former Japanese ambassador to the United States (2001-08), is thinking big about the future of Japanese baseball, the dominance of the US in the baseball world, and how to grow baseball as a worldwide sport.

Japan Times sports writer, Jason Coskrey, fills us in on what was said at a recent Foreign Sportswriters of Japan meeting that Kato attended.

The following are a couple of choice cuts from Coskrey’s article.

Regarding a true world series:

The issue at the forefront of Kato’s plans is the prospect of a global world series between the champions of the NPB and MLB.

“Actually, that was not something I initiated,” Kato said. “(MLB) commissioner Bud Selig, he raised this topic in New York. It was on the fifth of January. As soon as I was ushered into his office, he opened up the conversation by saying ‘Let’s have a world series.’ “

And his thoughts on adding more teams to the current twelve:

“My personal hope is that we go in that direction,” Kato said. “Niigata is one, Matsuyama is another and maybe one more team or so in Kyushu,” he added, thinking in terms of possible destinations for an expansion. It is very difficult for me to tell you what are exact plans are, but I am for expansion.”

Read the rest here.

Both Fukuchi and Guiel are quoted in the piece. The main themes are: a) we surprise everyone by making the playoffs last year, b) we need to step it up this year, and c) we have a lot of capable young players on the team.

Here’s a little tidbit from the article:

“I think a lot of these younger players, when they get into the dome, they get a little overwhelmed,” Guiel said. “The aura of the Giants, the atmosphere of the Tokyo Dome, there’s a lot of pressure there.”

Read the article in its entirety here.

High five for Coskrey for bothering to cover the birds at all.