Comments on: Are sac bunts “productive” outs?

By: Christopher Pellegrini

Christopher Pellegrini — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 01:41:37 +0000

The idea of putting pressure on the pitcher is an interesting theory. We’ve all seen plenty of situations where a sacrifice bunt is followed by a walk (or two); one could probably argue that the bunt destabilized the pitcher and led to the free base(s). Whether or not it’s actually true, it’s a common way of thinking, that’s for sure.

Let’s see what the stats say about this one.

As Tokyo is currently leading NPB in sacrifice bunts, I decided to look through all of their games so far this season and try to figure out how often an early lead via sac bunt translated to a win.

On eight occasions (most of which were in the first inning), Tokyo sac bunted with the score tied 0-0, at least one run scored thereafter, and the Swallows went on to win the game. Each time there was a runner on first with no outs.

Interestingly, the birds have lost only one game this season in which they sac bunted early, got the lead, but ended up losing the game (April 5th, 3rd inning vs Yomiuri).

At least part of the reason for this is that Tokyo’s relief pitching has been very steady this season, and they have rarely blown leads (knock on wood).

However, as was demonstrated in the article, sac bunts often don’t lead to a run being scored, and that happened on at least nine other occasions (I am sure I missed several as I was focusing most of my attention on situations where a run scored).

So as it stands, Tokyo has been quite successful this season, about 50-50, at generating runs if a successful sac bunt is laid in the first third of the game.

There are, of course, some results that cloud the situation a little. Of those nine failed attempts to grab an early lead, Tokyo went on to win five of those games anyway (two of the bunts that failed to result in a run were in the same game versus the Fighters on May 22nd). We ended up losing the other four games.

Tokyo’s opponents, on the other hand, were far less successful in terms of early sac bunt-aided runs translating into wins.

There have been five games this season in which the opposing team got on the board first, but Tokyo came back to win four of those contests. The only team that held the lead was the Saitama Seibu Lions on June 3rd.

In the end, it looks like the Swallows have been reasonably successful at scoring runs when utilizing the sac bunt early in the game. That observation contradicts my point in the article that bunting early in the game (unless it’s the pitcher) is foolish at least as far as the Tokyo Swallows are concerned.

Whether or not there is indeed some kind of pressure that is felt by the pitcher is a phenomenon that should be looked into more.

By: Christopher Pellegrini

Christopher Pellegrini — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 13:00:30 +0000

Simon,
I was hoping that you’d stop by to comment on this! It’s been a while!

Do you have access to any numbers that would shed light on expected runs in NPB? Does anyone compile that data in Japan?

By: Christopher

Christopher — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 11:31:54 +0000

If it puts the opposition under pressure it’s a good idea but does it? Right at the beginning of the game? The opposition has 9 innings to go and the more savy teams will have figured out that the one run if its scored can be overturned. I would suggest that the one run is more useful to give your own team a boost and settle nerves. I also suspect that the opposition pitcher having given up a sacrifice bunt tries harder to get the next two outs and the bunt ends up being a motivator to the opposition.

Sekimoto has just added another bunt tonight – Tanaka?

By: simoncurrie

simoncurrie — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 09:13:27 +0000

The early 1 run lead to put the opposing team under pressure is valued here. Maybe the ER matrix is different for NPB than MLB? Hillman started laying down more bunts when the Fighters won it all, so who knows?

By: Christopher Pellegrini

Christopher Pellegrini — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 13:55:37 +0000

Sekimoto is leading the Central League in sacrifice bunts this season with 30 after losing to teammate, Hirano, last year (38 to 47, respectively).

So far, Sekimoto’s ahead of Tanaka by three.

Hopefully Tanaka won’t catch up to him.

By: Christopher

Christopher — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 04:37:06 +0000

Nice article, unfortunately Takada isn’t the only one I’m afraid. I wrote about a similar situation with Tigers last year when either Hirano or Sekimoto were pretty much required to bunt automatically when Akahoshi got on base. This led to Sekimoto laying down 4 bunts in one game and he was a batter who ended up with 53 RBIs in the season! A bunt can be a useful tool to increase the pressure on a pitcher used sparingly but with a good stealer you should never bunt but rely on the steal instead. Purely unscientific of course but I have noticed that double plays tend to happen more with one out which rather defeats the purpose of a sacrifice bunt.

By: David Watkins

David Watkins — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 21:46:14 +0000

Ah the sac bunt.

Watching NPB all these years has meant that I have learned to accept/tolerate them, but as you say, way more often than not it is an act of complete futility.

Let’s not forget though that in Japan, it’s not just the manager who is 100% responsible. Often the fans expect that sacbunt to be laid down with that man on first and no outs.

Indeed fans around us at Jingu often call for the sacbunt (or steal) and get angry with the manager if it is not carried out!

So the practice seems to be deeply ingrained in all aspects of Japanese baseball culture.

It does suck that’s for sure, but it may be many, many years before the Japanese managers and fans wake up and smell the ER coffee.

Until then, I’ll just go back to my trying to ignore/shut out their abuse. And that’s a difficult thing to do with a man like Takada at the helm.

By: Dan

Dan — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 18:23:42 +0000

Ah, expected runs. I compulsively do the quickie ER calculations during games – one of the best sabremetric tools, for my money.