Is Sacrifice Bunting Worth It?

Sacrifice bunting is rarely a good idea. With a man on first and the pitcher (or Shiroishi) at the plate, it could be argued that giving up an out in favor of advancing the runner is understandable. However, in most other cases it seems like a stupid waste of an out (or maybe it’s a face-saving technique?).

Those who are familiar with Japanese baseball have probably noticed the pervasiveness of the sac bunt. Man on first with no outs? Bunt. It’s nearly automatic, and .300 hitters like the Swallows’ Tanaka and Miyamoto have recently been ordered to take one for the team.

The math done in the states clearly shows that there is a better chance of scoring a run with a man on first and no outs (average of 0.9 runs) than with a man on second and one out (0.7 runs). In other words, voluntarily giving up an out just to get a guy on second actually decreases the team’s chances of scoring. Is the same true in Japan?

The Pacific league, with its designated hitters, should arguably not need to use the sac bunt quite as often, but a casual observer will notice that they bunt almost as often as their Central league counterparts. I decided to track sac bunting in the inter-league games as a way to check the value/effectiveness of the practice.

Game notes:

• First game of interleague play (May 21st, 2008): Tokyo played Seibu in Saitama and Takada had Miyamoto sacrifice bunt to move Guiel over to second after he singled to right to start the fourth inning. Riggs is easily taken care of for out number two. Miyade draws a walk to put runners on first and second. Kinugawa brings Guiel around from second on a single to right. Kawashima strikes out to end the top of the fourth. In the 7th, the Lions had Kataoka bunt to move the runner over to second, but no runs ended up scoring. Tokyo won the game 5-4.
• Game two of mini-series (May 22nd, 2008): Tokyo already had one out in the top of the 2nd inning, but third baseman Kawashima was told to bunt anyway (with men on first and second) for out number two. With runners on second and third, Fukuchi grounded out to the second baseman. No runs scored. Seibu won the game 7-2.
• Tokyo versus Chiba (May 23rd, 2008): Top of the third-Kinugawa got himself on first by way of a walk, and then Takada had shortstop Shiroishi bunt to move Kinugawa over to second. No runs scored. Chiba did the same thing in the bottom of the fourth and eighth innings with the same result both times. In both cases the sacrifice bunt was followed by a base on balls (it could be argued that the bunts were unnecessary because the walk would have moved the runner over anyway). Tokyo won this game in 12 innings 2-0.
• Game two (May 24th, 2008): With rain threatening, only Chiba sacrifice bunted. After a leadoff single, Hayakawa bunted the runner over. Fukuura then plated the runner with a single to right. Chiba won this game 4-3 by way of a walk-off single in the ninth.
• Home series versus Rakuten (May 25th, 2008): In the top of the fifth inning, Watanabe came up first and singled past Tokyo shortstop Kawabata. Rakuten manager, Nomura, then had Teppei sacrifice bunt. No runs scored. Tokyo did not sacrifice bunt in this game. Rakuten won 10-2.
• Game two of mini-series (May 26th, 2008): Tokyo’s Kawabata started the fifth inning with a single to left. Pitcher Rios then bunted him over to second. Kawabata then scored on Fukuchi’s single to center field. Rakuten’s pitcher bunted with one out in the top of the fourth to advance the runner. No runs scored. Rakuten won 5-4.
• Nippon Ham series at Jingu, game one (May 28th, 2008): After Fighters center fielder, Murata, drew a leadoff walk to start the game, Takaguchi advanced him to second on a sac bunt. The bats then came alive. The next two batters singled, and that was followed by a walk. Out number two arrived on a strikeout, but two more singles soon followed. Nippon Ham scored three runs that inning. Tokyo did not sacrifice bunt in this game even though they had a chance to do so in the bottom of the fifth inning. Miyamoto led off with a single, and rather than having Kawashima bunt, Takada let him swing away. Kawashima and the two batters following him, Kinugawa and Saitou, responded with singles. Fukuchi struck out, Tanaka flied out to center (one run scored), and Takeuchi closed the inning with a strikeout. Two runs scored, but Nippon Ham won this contest 7-3.
• Game two (May 29th, 2008): Tokyo utility man, Kawashima, was brought off the bench to sacrifice bunt in the bottom of the 8th inning. Fukuchi then brought Yuuichi around to score in the following at-bat. One run scored. For its part, Nippon Ham sacrifice bunted in the first, fifth and sixth innings, but no runs scored following those three bunts. Nippon Ham won 3-2.
• First game of mini-series versus Buffaloes (May 31st, 2008): There were no sacrifice bunts in this game which was played at Skymark stadium. Tokyo won 9-3.
• Game two (June 1st, 2008): Orix did not employ the sacrifice bunt in this series. However, after Fukuchi reached base on a single to start the game, Tanaka (yes, you read that right) was asked to bunt him over. He did his duty, and Fukuchi safely reached second base. However, no runs scored in that inning. Orix won 9-3.
• Two-game series in Fukuoka (June 3rd, 2008): For the second game in a row, Takada had one of the team’s most reliable hitters sacrifice bunt in the top of the first inning. Fukuchi led off with a single to left, and Miyamoto bunted him over. No runs scored. The Hawks did not sacrifice bunt in this contest even though (theoretically) they had two opportunities to do so. Softbank won 7-3.
• Game two versus Softbank (June 4th, 2008): Neither team sacrifice bunted in this game. Fortunately, Takada passed on a chance to repeat what happened the night before when Miyamoto came to the plate with a Fukuchi on first in the fifth inning. The Swallows scored two runs in that inning. Tokyo won 3-0.
• Home series versus Seibu (June 6th, 2008): With Hatakeyama safely on second base, Takada had Takeuchi bunt him over to third. The wasted opportunity became evident when Hatakeyama reached home on Kawamoto’s home run. Three runs scored in that inning. Tokyo won 7-1.
• Game two versus Seibu (June 7th, 2008): Seibu had Bocachica bunt Nakamura over to third and he scored just after that. One run scored that inning. Tokyo did not sacrifice bunt in this game although Takada was given two opportunities to do so. Seibu won 5-3.
• Chiba comes to Jingu (June 8th, 2008): Chiba sacrifice bunted in the 5th, but no runs scored even though two men were already on base. Tokyo attempted something similar in the bottom of the 9th, but it did not result in a run. Chiba won 4-3.
• Game two versus Chiba Lotte (June 9th, 2008): This was a long game, but there was no sacrifice bunting. With Takeuchi at the plate (not one of Tokyo’s best hitters) and a man on first, normally a sacrifice bunt situation for Takada, Takeuchi was allowed to swing, and he came through. Takeuchi’s single was followed by a Kawamoto double that drove in two rbi’s. Chiba won 5-3.
• Two-game series versus Rakuten (June 11th, 2008): This game was played in Sendai. Tokyo won this one in the top of the 10th inning. Tanaka reached safely on a walk, and then Takeuchi bunted to move him over. The bunt was shown to be wasteful as Fukuchi ended up hitting a triple to bring both Tanaka and Kawashima around to score (Kawashima also drew a base on balls after Taekuchi’s sacrifice). Rakuten tried the sacrifice bunt in the bottom of the 8th, but it didn’t result in a run. Tokyo won 5-3.
• Game two in Sendai (June 12th, 2008): Tokyo used the sacrifice bunt twice in this game. The first time came in the top of the third inning. Takeuchi single to right. Moved to second on Kawamoto’s sac bunt. Kawashima singles to put runners at the corners. Fukuchi rbi single past third base. Miyamoto grounds out to short. Aoki intentionally walked. Hatakeyama two-run single to center. Three runs scored in this inning although it could be argued that the bunt wasn’t helpful when the events of the entire inning are taken into account. Sac bunt number two came in the seventh, but was more or less shown to be wasteful when Aoki later homered. Tokyo won 7-3.
• Tokyo plays Nippon Ham (June 14th, 2008): There were no sac bunts in this game. Takada had a chance to order one up in the top of the sixth, but Aoki was at the plate. Aoki, thankfully, is not forced to sac bunt. Tokyo scored its only run that inning. Nippon Ham won 2-1.
• Game two at Sapporo Dome (June 15th, 2008): This was a sac bunt matsuri! Bottom 1st, Fighters shortstop Takaguchi bunts the guy on first over to second for out number one. Outs two and three come in quick succession. No runs score. Top 2nd, Tanaka asked to bunt. Nothing comes of it. Top of the 3rd, Tokyo tries it again. After Kawashima doubled, Fukuchi bunted him over to third. This time it works as Miyamoto singles to bring Kawashima around to score. However, Aoki soon followed with a single of his own, so it can be argued that the run would have come around anyway (the bunt was a waste of an out). Top 4th, Takada opts to bunt for the third straight inning. Iihara sacrifices, but no runs score. Tokyo’s fourth sac bunt came in the 6th. Iihara singles, so Kawamoto bunts. Kawashima walks (thus negating the possible gain from the bunt), and then Fukuchi singles to load the bases. Two successive outs mean that all three runners are stranded. No runs score. Tokyo won 3-1.
• First game of the Softbank Series (June 18th, 2008): This game was played in Nagano as a “home” contest for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. There were no sacrifice bunts in this game. Tokyo won 3-2.

Summary:

During the inter-league games that have been taking place since the second half of May, sacrifice bunts were tracked in all Tokyo Yakult Swallows games until June 18th, 2008. Tokyo’s, and their opponent’s, sacrifice bunts were noted with the relative success (in runs) of each sacrifice.

Through the beginning of the Softbank series played in Nagano (21 games total), 30 sacrifice bunts were attempted. The runner bunted over later scored on 11 of those occasions (19 sacrifice bunts did not result in a run being scored). However, six of those cases in which runs scored were situations where a subsequent rally, base on balls, or big hit (triple or home run), nullified the relative gain of the sacrifice. Therefore only five of those bunts were successful and arguably worth the out that a sacrifice bunt entails. Accordingly, 25 of the sacrifice bunts served no other purpose than to hasten the end of the inning.

Tokyo had a slight, although negligible, lead over its opponents in terms of runs scored following a sac bunt by notching three successful attempts while the teams in the other dugout combined for only two successes. However, Tokyo led its opponents, by a count of 5-1, in terms of bunts that were later shown to be wasteful (for example, due to a subsequent home run or walk).

Although the sample size in this experiment is limited, and the analysis extremely simple, it is evident that sacrifice bunting played an irreplaceable role in a run being scored only 17% of the time. While much more play-by-play analysis is needed to corroborate these findings, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that less than one in five of the sacrifice bunts laid down during the first 21 inter-league games in which the Tokyo Yakult Swallows participated was a defensible decision (e.g. a run scored). If the percentages were the other way around, and, for example, two out of three bunts directly eventuated a run being scored, then, hey, I would happily trade three outs for two runs every inning if I were the manager of a professional baseball team.

However, in the case study presented here, more than 80% of sacrifice bunts were shown to be wasteful and detrimental to the team’s cause. It doesn’t matter how much better things appear to be if a runner is stranded on second, rather than on first, at the end of an inning, or even if he’s caught up in a double play. The bottom line is that outs are precious, and every one given away increases the chances that the team will not score a run in that inning.

In conclusion, except in situations where there are: a) no outs, b) a man on first, and, c) a pitcher who is actually good at bunting at the plate, sacrifice bunting should be abandoned in favor of allowing players to either draw walks or try to hit the ball. If a player’s OBP is greater than .170 (17% success rate of sac bunting according to this study), then a manager is effectively acting against his team’s best interests by ordering a sacrifice bunt.

[As of June 18th, infielder Shiroishi's OBP was .059 while starting pitcher, Tateyama, had an OBP of .188. Making Shiroishi bunt is excusable, and perhaps advisable, according to these findings. Tateyama, however, could arguably benefit the team more by swinging away.]